Independent candidate Dan Osborn is tied with incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer in Nebraska’s Senate race, according to a poll commissioned by the Osborn campaign.
The survey, conducted Wednesday and Thursday by the group Change Research, found that Osborn and Fischer are tied at 47% among likely November voters, with 5% undecided.
Those findings are consistent with other internal surveys — and even a New York Times/Siena College poll that came out Monday — showing Osborn trailing Fischer within the margin of polling error.
The latest survey, however, suggests that Osborn’s campaign has remained relatively unscathed by the avalanche of negative advertising that Senate Republicans have poured into the race in its final weeks.
It also found GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump leading Democratic rival Kamala Harris in Nebraska 57% to 39% — an 18-point advantage that mirrors his 19-point victory there over Joe Biden in 2020. The results suggests that Osborn is making the kind of inroads with Trump-voting Nebraskans that he would need to win in such a Republican state.
Fischer had been expected to win reelection easily, but the race has tightened, prompting national GOP groups to invest millions in a contest they would sooner have ignored. Senate Republicans and party operatives are reportedly frustrated with Fischer for letting things come to this.
“It’s like some of these safe folks feel a little bit immortal,” an unnamed Republican senator told The Hill for a story published last week. “It’s what happens in these ruby-red states.”
The stakes are enormous, with Republicans poised to win control of the U.S. Senate so long as they net two seats. With a seemingly easy pickup in West Virginia, and the likely ouster of Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Republicans would simply need to hold on to their existing seats to take over the legislative chamber.
According to his campaign, Osborn, a union industrial mechanic and steamfitter, does not plan to “caucus” with either major political party — unlike some other independent senators who generally align with Democrats and contribute to their majority in the chamber.
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But almost all of Osborn’s views resemble those of a pro-labor Democrat, he has excited the state’s liberal voters, and he is quietly getting support from Democrat-backed super PACs. The U.S. Navy veteran is an economic populist running against corporate influence in both parties, who has nonetheless emphasized border security with an aggressiveness that most Democrats might not employ.
He is also clear-eyed about the need to win over as many Trump voters as possible. In a new TV ad, Trump voters supporting Osborn argue that Fischer, who called for Trump to withdraw as a presidential candidate in October 2016, has “more in common with Hillary Clinton than Donald Trump,” referring to the onetime Democratic presidential nominee.
In a memo accompanying the poll, Change Research said the 5% of undecided voters could break for Osborn.
“Among the small slice of undecided voters, 78% would consider voting for Osborn while just 62% would consider voting for Fischer,” the memo said.